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Oliver Marsden v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Tue 10 Jul 2018)

Match won by Oliver Marsden. Result: 4-9,9-3,5-9,9-1,9-5.

Starting level for Oliver Marsden: 1,731, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,399, level confidence: 68%.
Oliver Marsden to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton.

Oliver Marsden won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Marsden played 12% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton in this match.

As Oliver Marsden has played below his allowed range at 1,615, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Oliver Marsden would normally have been playing at level 1,705 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Tuite-Dalton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Marsden changes to -2.9% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to +4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Marsden becomes -2.3% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Oliver Marsden is -1.5% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Marsden: 86%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Marsden: 82%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Marsden: 1,703, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,425, level confidence: 78%.