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Mike Peake v Jim Lynn (Tue 10 Jul 2018)

Match won by Jim Lynn. Result: 11-5,6-11,6-11,5-11.

Starting level for Mike Peake: 1,324, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jim Lynn: 1,710, level confidence: 56%.
Jim Lynn to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Mike Peake.

Jim Lynn won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jim Lynn played 29% better than Mike Peake in this match.

In this case, Jim Lynn played at level 1,702 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mike Peake is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jim Lynn: 75%, Mike Peake: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jim Lynn: 75%, Mike Peake: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Peake: 1,322, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Jim Lynn: 1,707, level confidence: 75%.