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Cesar Salazar v Jason-Ray Khalil (Thu 19 Jul 2018)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 39,355, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for Jason-Ray Khalil: 3,569, level confidence: 30%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 1003% better than Jason-Ray Khalil.

Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 230% better than Jason-Ray Khalil in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cesar Salazar was taking it easy by anything up to 61%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,948 and 39,355 without affecting his level.

In this case, Cesar Salazar played at level 13,424 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Cesar Salazar would normally have been playing at level 15,300 (based on typical behaviour), Jason-Ray Khalil played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to 0% and Jason-Ray Khalil changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes 0% and for Jason-Ray Khalil becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 63%, Jason-Ray Khalil: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 35%, Jason-Ray Khalil: 30%.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 39,355, level confidence: 35%.
Final level for Jason-Ray Khalil: 3,649, level confidence: 30%.