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Cesar Salazar v Qantarina Pipz (Fri 20 Jul 2018)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 39,355, level confidence: 35%.
Starting level for Qantarina Pipz: 31,101, level confidence: 26%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Qantarina Pipz.

Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 120% better than Qantarina Pipz in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 51,892 and Qantarina Pipz at a level of 23,587. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +21% and Qantarina Pipz changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +4.4% and for Qantarina Pipz becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Qantarina Pipz is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 59%, Qantarina Pipz: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 45%, Qantarina Pipz: 39%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 40,781, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Qantarina Pipz: 29,691, level confidence: 39%.