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Jim Reay v Ray Owens (Tue 24 Jul 2018)

Match won by Jim Reay. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Jim Reay: 393, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Ray Owens: 264, level confidence: 58%.
Jim Reay to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Ray Owens.

Jim Reay won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Jim Reay has played below his allowed range at 339, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Jim Reay would normally have been playing at level 375 (based on typical behaviour), Ray Owens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 5.3% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 4.2%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jim Reay changes to -1.8% and Ray Owens changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jim Reay becomes -1.8% and for Ray Owens becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Jim Reay is -0.9% and for Ray Owens is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jim Reay: 77%, Ray Owens: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jim Reay: 71%, Ray Owens: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jim Reay: 389, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ray Owens: 268, level confidence: 70%.