Jonathan East v Shaun Mizen (Thu 26 Jul 2018)
Match won by Shaun Mizen. Result: 10-15,11-15,9-15.
Starting level for
Jonathan East:
1,769, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for
Shaun Mizen:
2,330, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Shaun Mizen to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Jonathan East.
Shaun Mizen won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Mizen played
52% better than Jonathan East in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shaun Mizen actually played at a level of
2,500 and Jonathan East at a level of
1,649. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 6.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen changes to +3.7% and Jonathan East changes to -6.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen becomes +2.5% and for Jonathan East becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Shaun Mizen is +1.6% and for Jonathan East is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Mizen: 90%, Jonathan East: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Mizen: 84%, Jonathan East: 64%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jonathan East:
1,725, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen:
2,364, level confidence: 84%.