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Adrian Cassidy v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Tue 24 Jul 2018)

Match won by Tom Tuite-Dalton. Result: 7-9,0-9,2-9.

Starting level for Adrian Cassidy: 1,714, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,481, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Adrian Cassidy to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton.

Tom Tuite-Dalton won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Tuite-Dalton played 76% better than Adrian Cassidy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Tuite-Dalton actually played at a level of 2,114 and Adrian Cassidy at a level of 1,201. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to +39% and Adrian Cassidy changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes +16.6% and for Adrian Cassidy becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton is +10.8% and for Adrian Cassidy is -9.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Tuite-Dalton is limited to +10% and Adrian Cassidy is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 88%, Adrian Cassidy: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 62%, Adrian Cassidy: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Cassidy: 1,630, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,627, level confidence: 62%.