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Roger Booker v David Surrage (Thu 26 Jul 2018)

Match won by David Surrage. Result: 3-9,2-9,2-9.

Starting level for Roger Booker: 964, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for David Surrage: 1,440, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
David Surrage to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Roger Booker.

David Surrage won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 98% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Surrage played 98% better than Roger Booker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Surrage actually played at a level of 1,658 and Roger Booker at a level of 837. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Surrage changes to +10.7% and Roger Booker changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Surrage becomes +5.8% and for Roger Booker becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for David Surrage is +3.8% and for Roger Booker is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Surrage: 89%, Roger Booker: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Surrage: 77%, Roger Booker: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Booker: 919, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for David Surrage: 1,492, level confidence: 77%.