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Oscar Hill v Patrick Fitzpatrick (Sat 28 Jul 2018)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 10-12,13-11,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 3,920, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,579, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Oscar Hill won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 33% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 4,324 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 3,245. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +9.8% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +3.9% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -2.7%.

Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 89% has been applied to his level change.

Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 80% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.8% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 70%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 63%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 84%.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 3,953, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,558, level confidence: 84%.