Oscar Hill v Patrick Fitzpatrick (Sat 28 Jul 2018)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 10-12,13-11,11-2,11-5.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
3,920, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for
Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,579, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.
Oscar Hill won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
33% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
4,324 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of
3,245. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +9.8% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -5.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +3.9% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -2.7%.
Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 89% has been applied to his level change.
Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 80% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.8% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is -0.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 70%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 63%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 84%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
3,953, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,558, level confidence: 84%.