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Cesar Salazar v Sunil Seth (Tue 24 Jul 2018)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,603, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sunil Seth: 10,688, level confidence: 61%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 289% better than Sunil Seth.

Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 52% better than Sunil Seth in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cesar Salazar was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,451 and 41,603 without affecting his level.

As Cesar Salazar has played below his allowed range at 17,293, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Cesar Salazar would normally have been playing at level 27,706 (based on typical behaviour), Sunil Seth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 31%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to -2.7% and Sunil Seth changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes -1% and for Sunil Seth becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 87%, Sunil Seth: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 54%, Sunil Seth: 49%.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 41,181, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Sunil Seth: 11,133, level confidence: 49%.