Oliver Collin v James Mortimer (Tue 31 Jul 2018)
Match won by Oliver Collin. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Oliver Collin:
259, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Mortimer:
228, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Oliver Collin to win as he is currently playing
14% better than James Mortimer.
Oliver Collin won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Oliver Collin has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use
accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his
pre-match level has been increased to
293. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Collin actually played at a level of
342 and James Mortimer at a level of
195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 8.1%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Collin changes to +7.9% and James Mortimer changes to -8.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Collin becomes +5.4% and for James Mortimer becomes -5.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Oliver Collin is +2.7% and for James Mortimer is -2.7%.
Including the accelerated level adjustment, the
total adjustment for Oliver Collin is +16%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Collin: 85%, James Mortimer: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Collin: 69%, James Mortimer: 68%.
Final level for Oliver Collin:
301, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for James Mortimer:
222, level confidence: 68%.