Alistair Robbie v James Mortimer (Tue 31 Jul 2018)
Match won by Alistair Robbie. Result: 3-2.
Starting level for
Alistair Robbie:
186, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Mortimer:
214, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Alistair Robbie.
Alistair Robbie won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alistair Robbie actually played at a level of
209 and James Mortimer at a level of
190. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 10.5%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alistair Robbie changes to +10.5% and James Mortimer changes to -10.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alistair Robbie becomes +6.7% and for James Mortimer becomes -6.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Alistair Robbie is +3.3% and for James Mortimer is -3.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alistair Robbie: 84%, James Mortimer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alistair Robbie: 75%, James Mortimer: 76%.
Final level for Alistair Robbie:
192, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for James Mortimer:
207, level confidence: 76%.