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Kristian Frost Pedersen v Peter Richardson (Mon 30 Jul 2018)

Match won by Kristian Frost Pedersen. Result: 15-9,15-9,15-12.

Starting level for Kristian Frost Pedersen: 2,828, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Richardson: 1,959, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Kristian Frost Pedersen to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Peter Richardson.

Kristian Frost Pedersen won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kristian Frost Pedersen played 52% better than Peter Richardson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kristian Frost Pedersen actually played at a level of 2,899 and Peter Richardson at a level of 1,911. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kristian Frost Pedersen changes to +2.1% and Peter Richardson changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kristian Frost Pedersen becomes +1.4% and for Peter Richardson becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Kristian Frost Pedersen is +0.9% and for Peter Richardson is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kristian Frost Pedersen: 86%, Peter Richardson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kristian Frost Pedersen: 84%, Peter Richardson: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kristian Frost Pedersen: 2,850, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Peter Richardson: 1,936, level confidence: 84%.