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Shaun Mizen v John Richardson (Tue 31 Jul 2018)

Match won by Shaun Mizen. Result: 15-10,15-7,15-12.

Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,365, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for John Richardson: 1,593, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Shaun Mizen to win as he is currently playing 48% better than John Richardson.

Shaun Mizen won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Mizen played 55% better than John Richardson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shaun Mizen actually played at a level of 2,417 and John Richardson at a level of 1,558. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen changes to +1.8% and John Richardson changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen becomes +1.3% and for John Richardson becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Shaun Mizen is +0.9% and for John Richardson is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Mizen: 91%, John Richardson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Mizen: 89%, John Richardson: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,382, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for John Richardson: 1,575, level confidence: 89%.