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Roger Booker v Richard Townsend (Tue 31 Jul 2018)

Match won by Richard Townsend. Result: 7-9,3-9,9-0,9-4,6-9.

Starting level for Roger Booker: 916, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richard Townsend: 997, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Richard Townsend to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Roger Booker.

Richard Townsend won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Townsend played 7% better than Roger Booker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Townsend actually played at a level of 986 and Roger Booker at a level of 926. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Townsend changes to -1% and Roger Booker changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Townsend becomes -1% and for Roger Booker becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Richard Townsend is -0.6% and for Roger Booker is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Townsend: 87%, Roger Booker: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Townsend: 86%, Roger Booker: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Booker: 921, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Richard Townsend: 989, level confidence: 86%.