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Miles Jenkins v Joel Makin (Sat 04 Aug 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 3-11,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 18,230, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 42,461, level confidence: 70%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Miles Jenkins.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 74% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,559 and 42,461 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 33,492 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 35,428 (based on typical behaviour), Miles Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Miles Jenkins changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Miles Jenkins becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 84%, Miles Jenkins: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 72%, Miles Jenkins: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miles Jenkins: 18,448, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 42,397, level confidence: 72%.