SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Dave Downman v Shaun Mizen (Thu 09 Aug 2018)

Match won by Dave Downman. Result: 11-15,12-15,15-4,15-10,15-9.

Starting level for Dave Downman: 3,206, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,377, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Dave Downman to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Shaun Mizen.

Dave Downman won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Downman played 15% better than Shaun Mizen in this match.

As Dave Downman has played below his allowed range at 2,856, his level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Dave Downman would normally have been playing at level 3,115 (based on typical behaviour), Shaun Mizen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Downman changes to -4.2% and Shaun Mizen changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Downman becomes -2.4% and for Shaun Mizen becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Dave Downman is -1.5% and for Shaun Mizen is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Downman: 88%, Shaun Mizen: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Downman: 81%, Shaun Mizen: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Downman: 3,165, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,430, level confidence: 85%.