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Sam Cooper v Roger Booker (Thu 09 Aug 2018)

Match won by Roger Booker. Result: 2-9,6-9,5-9.

Starting level for Sam Cooper: 664, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Roger Booker: 921, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Roger Booker to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Sam Cooper.

Roger Booker won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Booker played 50% better than Sam Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roger Booker actually played at a level of 959 and Sam Cooper at a level of 638. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Booker changes to +2.4% and Sam Cooper changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Booker becomes +2.4% and for Sam Cooper becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Roger Booker is +1.6% and for Sam Cooper is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Booker: 89%, Sam Cooper: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Booker: 86%, Sam Cooper: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Cooper: 649, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Roger Booker: 934, level confidence: 86%.