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Joel Makin v Marcus Hayes (Mon 13 Aug 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-3,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 44,839, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,848, level confidence: 68%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 407% better than Marcus Hayes.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 175% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 43%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,139 and 44,839 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 25,014 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 25,715 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Hayes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Marcus Hayes changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Marcus Hayes becomes +0.6%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is 0% and for Marcus Hayes is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 78%, Marcus Hayes: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 57%, Marcus Hayes: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 44,951, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,895, level confidence: 61%.