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Richard English v Peter Richardson (Wed 15 Aug 2018)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 16-18,10-15,15-9,14-16.

Starting level for Richard English: 2,951, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Richardson: 1,935, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Richard English to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Peter Richardson.

Peter Richardson won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 19% better than Richard English in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Richardson actually played at a level of 2,602 and Richard English at a level of 2,195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to +27% and Richard English changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes +11% and for Richard English becomes -9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is +7.2% and for Richard English is -5.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Richard English is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 88%, Richard English: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 66%, Richard English: 68%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard English: 2,878, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,079, level confidence: 66%.