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Oliver Collin v James Mortimer (Fri 17 Aug 2018)

Match won by Oliver Collin. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Oliver Collin: 298, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Mortimer: 207, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Oliver Collin to win as he is currently playing 44% better than James Mortimer.

Oliver Collin won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Oliver Collin has played below his allowed range at 247, his level reduction is 8.7% before damping. On the assumption that Oliver Collin would normally have been playing at level 286 (based on typical behaviour), James Mortimer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 10% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 9%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Collin changes to -6.5% and James Mortimer changes to +9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Collin becomes -4.8% and for James Mortimer becomes +6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Oliver Collin is -2.3% and for James Mortimer is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Collin: 84%, James Mortimer: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Collin: 74%, James Mortimer: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Collin: 292, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for James Mortimer: 214, level confidence: 73%.