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Matthew Marshall v Jamie Douglas (Mon 20 Aug 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-7,5-11,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,451, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jamie Douglas: 8,894, level confidence: 10%.
Jamie Douglas to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Matthew Marshall.

Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 23% better than Jamie Douglas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 9,605 and Jamie Douglas at a level of 7,825. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +1.6% and Jamie Douglas changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +0.8% and for Jamie Douglas becomes -4.1%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jamie Douglas's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +0.4% and for Jamie Douglas is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 92%, Jamie Douglas: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 81%, Jamie Douglas: 28%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,509, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Jamie Douglas: 8,739, level confidence: 28%.