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John Yates v Shaun Mizen (Mon 20 Aug 2018)

Match won by John Yates. Result: 15-12,15-12,10-15,15-12.

Starting level for John Yates: 3,059, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,401, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
John Yates to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Shaun Mizen.

John Yates won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Yates played 19% better than Shaun Mizen in this match.

As John Yates has played below his allowed range at 2,894, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that John Yates would normally have been playing at level 3,000 (based on typical behaviour), Shaun Mizen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Yates changes to -0.9% and Shaun Mizen changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Yates becomes -0.6% and for Shaun Mizen becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for John Yates is -0.4% and for Shaun Mizen is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Yates: 78%, Shaun Mizen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Yates: 76%, Shaun Mizen: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Yates: 3,055, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,424, level confidence: 88%.