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Peter Richardson v Gavin Mennie (Tue 21 Aug 2018)

Match won by Gavin Mennie. Result: 16-14,6-15,15-12,9-15,8-15.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,081, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Gavin Mennie: 2,672, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Gavin Mennie to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Peter Richardson.

Gavin Mennie won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gavin Mennie played 15% better than Peter Richardson in this match.

As Gavin Mennie has played below his allowed range at 2,472, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Gavin Mennie would normally have been playing at level 2,618 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Richardson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gavin Mennie changes to -2.1% and Peter Richardson changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gavin Mennie becomes -1.5% and for Peter Richardson becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Gavin Mennie is -1% and for Peter Richardson is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gavin Mennie: 88%, Peter Richardson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gavin Mennie: 84%, Peter Richardson: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,121, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Gavin Mennie: 2,653, level confidence: 84%.