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Duncan Whale v Annabel Bacon (Wed 22 Aug 2018)

Match won by Duncan Whale. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Duncan Whale: 834, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Annabel Bacon: 704, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Duncan Whale to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Annabel Bacon.

Duncan Whale won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Duncan Whale has played below his allowed range at 795, his level reduction is 2.7% before damping. On the assumption that Duncan Whale would normally have been playing at level 827 (based on typical behaviour), Annabel Bacon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 2.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Whale changes to -2% and Annabel Bacon changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Whale becomes -2% and for Annabel Bacon becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Duncan Whale is -1% and for Annabel Bacon is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Whale: 91%, Annabel Bacon: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Whale: 88%, Annabel Bacon: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duncan Whale: 824, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Annabel Bacon: 713, level confidence: 84%.