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Jeremy Wright v James Mortimer (Wed 22 Aug 2018)

Match won by Jeremy Wright. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Jeremy Wright: 255, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Mortimer: 214, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Jeremy Wright to win as he is currently playing 19% better than James Mortimer.

Jeremy Wright won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Wright actually played at a level of 309 and James Mortimer at a level of 177. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 10.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Wright changes to +9.4% and James Mortimer changes to -10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Wright becomes +6.1% and for James Mortimer becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Jeremy Wright is +3.1% and for James Mortimer is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Wright: 90%, James Mortimer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Wright: 74%, James Mortimer: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jeremy Wright: 262, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for James Mortimer: 207, level confidence: 70%.