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Shaun Mizen v Matt Lovett (Wed 22 Aug 2018)

Match won by Matt Lovett. Result: 15-12,11-15,8-15,15-13,7-15.

Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,424, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matt Lovett: 3,058, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Matt Lovett to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Shaun Mizen.

Matt Lovett won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Lovett played 14% better than Shaun Mizen in this match.

As Matt Lovett has played below his allowed range at 2,844, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Matt Lovett would normally have been playing at level 3,004 (based on typical behaviour), Shaun Mizen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Lovett changes to -2.8% and Shaun Mizen changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Lovett becomes -1.9% and for Shaun Mizen becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Matt Lovett is -1.2% and for Shaun Mizen is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Lovett: 89%, Shaun Mizen: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Lovett: 84%, Shaun Mizen: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,467, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Matt Lovett: 3,029, level confidence: 84%.