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Tim Budden v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Thu 23 Aug 2018)

Match won by Tom Tuite-Dalton. Result: 2-3.

Starting level for Tim Budden: 1,454, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,616, level confidence: 69%.
Tom Tuite-Dalton to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Tim Budden.

Tom Tuite-Dalton won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Tuite-Dalton actually played at a level of 1,608 and Tim Budden at a level of 1,462. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to -0.4% and Tim Budden changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes -0.4% and for Tim Budden becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton is 0% and for Tim Budden is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 83%, Tim Budden: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 82%, Tim Budden: 91%.

Final level for Tim Budden: 1,456, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,613, level confidence: 82%.