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Peter Richardson v Julian Peak (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 12-15,15-11,15-7,15-7.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,128, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Julian Peak: 1,752, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Julian Peak.

Peter Richardson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 31% better than Julian Peak in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Richardson actually played at a level of 2,208 and Julian Peak at a level of 1,688. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to +3.4% and Julian Peak changes to -3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes +2.4% and for Julian Peak becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is +1.6% and for Julian Peak is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 86%, Julian Peak: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 83%, Julian Peak: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,167, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Julian Peak: 1,727, level confidence: 83%.