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Tom Tuite-Dalton v Simon Stone (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Simon Stone. Result: 1-3.

Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,609, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Stone: 1,133, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Tom Tuite-Dalton to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Simon Stone.

Simon Stone won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Stone actually played at a level of 1,510 and Tom Tuite-Dalton at a level of 1,208. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 21%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Stone changes to +21% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Stone becomes +10.8% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes -9.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Simon Stone is +5.4% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Stone: 91%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Stone: 68%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,571, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Simon Stone: 1,193, level confidence: 68%.