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Duncan Whale v Simon Eyles (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Duncan Whale. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Duncan Whale: 820, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Eyles: 443, level confidence: 58%.
Duncan Whale to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Simon Eyles.

Duncan Whale won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Duncan Whale has played below his allowed range at 591, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Duncan Whale would normally have been playing at level 738 (based on typical behaviour), Simon Eyles played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 11% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 8.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Whale changes to -2.6% and Simon Eyles changes to +8.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Whale becomes -2.6% and for Simon Eyles becomes +5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Duncan Whale is -1.3% and for Simon Eyles is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Whale: 92%, Simon Eyles: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Whale: 76%, Simon Eyles: 63%.

Final level for Duncan Whale: 809, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Simon Eyles: 456, level confidence: 63%.