Jim Reay v Ray Owens (Wed 29 Aug 2018)
Match won by Jim Reay. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Jim Reay:
403, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ray Owens:
266, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Jim Reay to win as he is currently playing
52% better than Ray Owens.
Jim Reay won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jim Reay actually played at a level of
433 and Ray Owens at a level of
247. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 3.4%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jim Reay changes to +3.4% and Ray Owens changes to -3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jim Reay becomes +3.2% and for Ray Owens becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Jim Reay is +1.6% and for Ray Owens is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jim Reay: 86%, Ray Owens: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jim Reay: 80%, Ray Owens: 86%.
Final level for Jim Reay:
409, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Ray Owens:
262, level confidence: 86%.