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Brieanna Burki v Shaun Mizen (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Shaun Mizen. Result: 6-15,14-16,15-8,6-15.

Starting level for Brieanna Burki: 2,405, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,467, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Shaun Mizen to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Brieanna Burki.

Shaun Mizen won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Mizen played 27% better than Brieanna Burki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shaun Mizen actually played at a level of 2,747 and Brieanna Burki at a level of 2,160. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen changes to +9% and Brieanna Burki changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen becomes +4.2% and for Brieanna Burki becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Shaun Mizen is +2.7% and for Brieanna Burki is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Mizen: 93%, Brieanna Burki: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Mizen: 84%, Brieanna Burki: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Brieanna Burki: 2,335, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,541, level confidence: 84%.