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Duncan Nightingale v Ray Owens (Fri 31 Aug 2018)

Match won by Duncan Nightingale. Result: 15-9,11-15,15-12,16-14.

Starting level for Duncan Nightingale: 500, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ray Owens: 262, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Duncan Nightingale to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Ray Owens.

Duncan Nightingale won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duncan Nightingale played 21% better than Ray Owens in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Duncan Nightingale was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 375 and 500 without affecting his level.

As Duncan Nightingale has played below his allowed range at 345, his level reduction is 8.6% before damping. On the assumption that Duncan Nightingale would normally have been playing at level 446 (based on typical behaviour), Ray Owens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Nightingale changes to -6.2% and Ray Owens changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Nightingale becomes -4.6% and for Ray Owens becomes +7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Duncan Nightingale is -2.3% and for Ray Owens is +3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Nightingale: 87%, Ray Owens: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Nightingale: 70%, Ray Owens: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duncan Nightingale: 488, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Ray Owens: 271, level confidence: 74%.