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Anthony Rogal v Matthew Marshall (Fri 31 Aug 2018)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 10,731, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,510, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Matthew Marshall.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 52% better than Matthew Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 11,768 and Matthew Marshall at a level of 7,760. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 8.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +8.6% and Matthew Marshall changes to -7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +2.8% and for Matthew Marshall becomes -2.7%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is +1.3% and for Matthew Marshall is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 82%, Matthew Marshall: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 75%, Matthew Marshall: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 10,898, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,416, level confidence: 80%.