Diego Gobbi v Micah Franklin (Sat 25 Aug 2018)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 15-13,4-11,12-10,11-2.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
16,545, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Micah Franklin:
14,705, level confidence: 56%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Micah Franklin.
Diego Gobbi won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
22% better than Micah Franklin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of
17,246 and Micah Franklin at a level of
14,107. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +3.2% and Micah Franklin changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +1.4% and for Micah Franklin becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 83%, Micah Franklin: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 80%, Micah Franklin: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
16,749, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Micah Franklin:
14,449, level confidence: 72%.