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Cesar Salazar v Ernesto Molina (Sun 26 Aug 2018)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 40,427, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Ernesto Molina: 6,434, level confidence: 52%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 528% better than Ernesto Molina.

Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 106% better than Ernesto Molina in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cesar Salazar was taking it easy by anything up to 48%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,724 and 40,427 without affecting his level.

In this case, Cesar Salazar played at level 16,622 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Cesar Salazar would normally have been playing at level 20,821 (based on typical behaviour), Ernesto Molina played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to 0% and Ernesto Molina changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes 0% and for Ernesto Molina becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 79%, Ernesto Molina: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 45%, Ernesto Molina: 41%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 40,366, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Ernesto Molina: 6,640, level confidence: 41%.