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Mike McCue v Diego Gobbi (Sun 26 Aug 2018)

Match won by Mike McCue. Result: 11-9,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Mike McCue: 22,923, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 16,803, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Diego Gobbi.

Mike McCue won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McCue played 65% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike McCue actually played at a level of 25,210 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 15,279. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 8.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McCue changes to +8.5% and Diego Gobbi changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McCue becomes +2.4% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McCue: 74%, Diego Gobbi: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McCue: 67%, Diego Gobbi: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike McCue: 23,433, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 16,460, level confidence: 81%.