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Todd Harrity v Diego Gobbi (Tue 28 Aug 2018)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 31,990, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 16,148, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Diego Gobbi.

Todd Harrity won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 120% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of 33,711 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 15,323. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +3.8% and Diego Gobbi changes to -3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +1.3% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 79%, Diego Gobbi: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 75%, Diego Gobbi: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 32,371, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 15,906, level confidence: 83%.