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Cesar Salazar v Miguel Rodriguez (Sat 01 Sep 2018)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,119, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 53,662, level confidence: 69%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Cesar Salazar.

Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 74% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 61,906 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 35,643. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +40% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -43%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +7.2% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Cesar Salazar is limited to +5.2% and Miguel Rodriguez is limited to -4.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 87%, Miguel Rodriguez: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 58%, Miguel Rodriguez: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 43,279, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 51,206, level confidence: 55%.