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Ray Owens v James Mortimer (Sun 09 Sep 2018)

Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Ray Owens: 267, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Mortimer: 207, level confidence: 65%.
Ray Owens to win as he is currently playing 29% better than James Mortimer.

Ray Owens won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Ray Owens has played below his allowed range at 240, his level reduction is 5.4% before damping. On the assumption that Ray Owens would normally have been playing at level 261 (based on typical behaviour), James Mortimer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 6.3% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 5.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ray Owens changes to -3.9% and James Mortimer changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ray Owens becomes -3.5% and for James Mortimer becomes +4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Ray Owens is -1.7% and for James Mortimer is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 84%, James Mortimer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 78%, James Mortimer: 74%.

Final level for Ray Owens: 262, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for James Mortimer: 211, level confidence: 74%.