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Lyndon Cheetham v Beth Jones (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,493, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Beth Jones: 609, level confidence: 49%.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 145% better than Beth Jones.

Lyndon Cheetham won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 69% better than Beth Jones in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyndon Cheetham was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,002 and 1,493 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyndon Cheetham played at level 1,123 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lyndon Cheetham would normally have been playing at level 1,223 (based on typical behaviour), Beth Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to 0% and Beth Jones changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes 0% and for Beth Jones becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 66%, Beth Jones: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 55%, Beth Jones: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,497, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Beth Jones: 631, level confidence: 58%.