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Hamish Thornton v David Freer (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Hamish Thornton. Result: 11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,294, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,233, level confidence: 59%.
Hamish Thornton to win as he is currently playing 167% better than David Freer.

Hamish Thornton won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hamish Thornton played 175% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hamish Thornton actually played at a level of 3,342 and David Freer at a level of 1,215. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton changes to +0.6% and David Freer changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton becomes +0.4% and for David Freer becomes -0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Thornton: 79%, David Freer: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Thornton: 78%, David Freer: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,316, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,229, level confidence: 76%.