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Dafydd Lewis v Calum Baker (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Dafydd Lewis. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,657, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Calum Baker: 1,446, level confidence: 63%.
Dafydd Lewis to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Calum Baker.

Dafydd Lewis won 67% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Lewis played 20% better than Calum Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dafydd Lewis actually played at a level of 1,699 and Calum Baker at a level of 1,411. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis changes to +1.7% and Calum Baker changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis becomes +1.4% and for Calum Baker becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Lewis: 81%, Calum Baker: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Lewis: 79%, Calum Baker: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,684, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Calum Baker: 1,428, level confidence: 77%.