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David Freer v Liam Townsend (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 3-11,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,252, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Liam Townsend: 817, level confidence: 17%.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Liam Townsend.

David Freer won 67% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 17% better than Liam Townsend in this match.

As David Freer has played below his allowed range at 1,036, his level reduction is 8.5% before damping. On the assumption that David Freer would normally have been playing at level 1,186 (based on typical behaviour), Liam Townsend played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 9.2% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to -1.9% and Liam Townsend changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes -1.7% and for Liam Townsend becomes +4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 67%, Liam Townsend: 41%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 59%, Liam Townsend: 36%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,234, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Liam Townsend: 859, level confidence: 36%.