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Jason Crease v Lyndon Cheetham (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Jason Crease. Result: 11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Jason Crease: 2,403, level confidence: 35%.
Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,634, level confidence: 48%.
Jason Crease to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Lyndon Cheetham.

Jason Crease won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Crease played 100% better than Lyndon Cheetham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jason Crease actually played at a level of 2,802 and Lyndon Cheetham at a level of 1,401. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Crease changes to +10% and Lyndon Cheetham changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Crease becomes +4.6% and for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Crease: 59%, Lyndon Cheetham: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Crease: 51%, Lyndon Cheetham: 60%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jason Crease: 2,520, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,605, level confidence: 60%.