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Calum Baker v David Freer (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Calum Baker. Result: 11-9,9-11,11-9.

Starting level for Calum Baker: 1,427, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,229, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Calum Baker to win as he is currently playing 16% better than David Freer.

Calum Baker won 67% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Calum Baker played 13% better than David Freer in this match.

As Calum Baker has played below his allowed range at 1,402, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Calum Baker would normally have been playing at level 1,419 (based on typical behaviour), David Freer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Calum Baker changes to -0.4% and David Freer changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Calum Baker becomes -0.3% and for David Freer becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Calum Baker: 88%, David Freer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Calum Baker: 87%, David Freer: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Calum Baker: 1,426, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,239, level confidence: 86%.