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Lyndon Cheetham v Mark Webster-Smith (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,605, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,771, level confidence: 61%.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Lyndon Cheetham.

Lyndon Cheetham won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 69% better than Mark Webster-Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of 2,193 and Mark Webster-Smith at a level of 1,296. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +25% and Mark Webster-Smith changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +11% and for Mark Webster-Smith becomes -10.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyndon Cheetham is limited to +10% and Mark Webster-Smith is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 77%, Mark Webster-Smith: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 56%, Mark Webster-Smith: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,769, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,690, level confidence: 57%.