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Liam Townsend v Lucy Kerr (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Liam Townsend. Result: 11-4,11-1.

Starting level for Liam Townsend: 861, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Lucy Kerr: 606, level confidence: 62%.
Liam Townsend to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Lucy Kerr.

Liam Townsend won all of the games and 81% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 340% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Townsend played 340% better than Lucy Kerr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Townsend actually played at a level of 1,515 and Lucy Kerr at a level of 344. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 76% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 61% and 61% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Townsend changes to +43% and Lucy Kerr changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Townsend becomes +21.2% and for Lucy Kerr becomes -20%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Townsend is limited to +10% and Lucy Kerr is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Townsend: 77%, Lucy Kerr: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Townsend: 44%, Lucy Kerr: 45%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Townsend: 949, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Lucy Kerr: 578, level confidence: 45%.