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Mason McLarney v Dafydd Lewis (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mason McLarney. Result: 6-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Mason McLarney: 2,415, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,726, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mason McLarney to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Dafydd Lewis.

Mason McLarney won 67% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mason McLarney played 18% better than Dafydd Lewis in this match.

As Mason McLarney has played below his allowed range at 2,143, his level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Mason McLarney would normally have been playing at level 2,331 (based on typical behaviour), Dafydd Lewis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 5.7% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mason McLarney changes to -3.1% and Dafydd Lewis changes to +3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mason McLarney becomes -2.2% and for Dafydd Lewis becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Pronto Dave Karran Memorial Tournament 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mason McLarney: 76%, Dafydd Lewis: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mason McLarney: 70%, Dafydd Lewis: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mason McLarney: 2,394, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,773, level confidence: 82%.